Fantasy managers love to discuss player values, trade targets, waiver wire options, and more. However, there is one opinion universally shared across the fantasy football community: injuries are the most challenging part of the game we all love. Given the aggressive nature of the sport, injuries are unfortunately an inevitable topic of conversation after every week of NFL action. However, this week’s injuries have been particularly devastating to many rosters. Those who listed the likes of Chris Olave, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, and AJ Brown could head into the playoffs without their wide receivers.
However, there were definitely some bright spots in this week’s matches. We mentioned several stars, including the likes of Saquon Barkley, Devon Ashan and Garrett Wilson, for being selected in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. We’ve also seen several players who, despite struggling to make an impact early on, are starting to produce at an interesting rate.
Below, I’ll highlight some players poised for a shift in perceived value in the coming weeks. For each profile, I will evaluate whether the recent change in production is just an anomaly or is set to continue as the NFL season comes to a close.
NFL players are going up and down
Fantasy football risers
Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
At the start of the season, Chase Brown primarily filled a secondary role to Zack Moss in the Bengals’ backfield. With the limited touches he received, it became abundantly clear that Brown was the more explosive player. The eye test indicated that Brown was willing to increase the touches. The next question was whether the Bengals’ play-callers would come to the same conclusion.
It feels as if in Week 9, after a series of injuries and safety issues for Moss, the Bengals finally handed the keys of the backfield to Brown. The latter took advantage of Moss’s absence and collected 32 touches for 157 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the Bengals’ win over the Raiders.
According to Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) efficiency metrics, Brown’s appointment as a starter is long overdue. He surpasses Moss in rushing grade, yards after contact per attempt, and elusive rating. As long as the Bengals’ offense continues to feature Brown heavily, he will continue to provide effective production through the ground game.
Chase Brown was able to be a real “return feature” today against the Raiders because Zach Moss was out with an injury.
The Bengals had one of their most effective games out of their backfield.
I asked Chase Brown if getting more snaps had anything to do with his success. he… pic.twitter.com/T5FolqENld
– Marshall Kramsky (@marshallkramsky) November 4, 2024
Many fantasy analysts preach the idea of focusing on players who are part of good offensive ecosystems. Cincinnati boasts an impressive group of weapons, headlined by star receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Joe Burrow is in contention for the MVP award and has this offense firing on all cylinders right now. With so many offensive threats to consider on this team, defenses will struggle to contain the electric sophomore running back. He should be rated as an RB2 moving forward.
Taysom Hill (TE – NO)
Taysom Hill has often been the subject of criticism from the fantasy football community. This is mainly due to his signature role in the red zone, which often resulted in “pouncing” touchdowns from perimeter pieces in the New Orleans Saints offense. Hill had an injury-plagued start to the 2024 season, making him mostly irrelevant for fantasy football purposes.
However, upon his return from injury in Week 9, the Swiss Army Knife resumed his key role in Clint Kubiak’s system. He had nine total touches and produced 16 fantasy points in the Saints’ loss to the Panthers. In the tight and serious final scene, this level of involvement is invaluable and worthy of immediate fictional attention.
The Saints’ lack of weapons also bodes well for Hill’s size. The team lost standout sophomore receiver Rashid Shahid to a season-ending knee injury a few weeks ago. Chris Olave’s Week 9 concussion is his second of the season, and given the player’s history of head injuries, could keep him sidelined for several weeks. Alvin Kamara and Hill are the only two remaining weapons who have a history of success with Derek Carr.
Hill’s path to production is quite unorthodox. He rarely gets high reception totals as elite tight ends typically do. His four receptions in Week 9 were a season-high. However, with the aforementioned injuries to key pass rushers in this system, expect Hill to see an increase in targets. Through the ground game, Hill was constantly serving as a change-of-pace runner to spell Kamara. To that end, Hill will continue to see his fair share of ball carries and will likely be the preferred goal line running back.
Hill offers a unique combination of quick production and receiving. His upside down drop is higher than most at the tight end position. While his usage should continue to be monitored, I’ll go out on a limb and say that Hill will be a weekly starter from here on out.
Fantasy Football Fallen
DJ Moore (WR – Chi)
Savvy fantasy managers may have noticed Caleb Williams’ steady improvement combined with Chicago’s preferred wide receiver schedule and identified DJ Moore as an ideal trade target. Unfortunately, those who made the move will likely regret the decision as Moore’s struggles have continued over the past two weeks. He has now failed to exceed 33 yards in four of the past five games.
In hindsight, it was certainly an uphill battle for Moore to repeat his breakout season in 2023. With Keenan Allen and Roma Udunze now in the fold, Moore’s competition for goals is greater than ever. Furthermore, rookie quarterbacks tend to have a steep learning curve in the NFL. Aside from the likes of CJ Stroud and Justin Herbert, most rookie signal callers fail to support the consistent fantasy production of the receivers in their offense. This appears to be the case for the Chicago Bears in 2024.
29. Since Keenan Allen returned to full action in Week 5, here’s how many weeks CHI receivers have played more than 15 weeks.
DJ Moore: 1
Cool Quantity: 1
Roma Udonzi: 1
Keenan Allen: 1It was Udunze today, although he was outdone by Allen (10) and Moore (9). Good luck guessing.
– Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 4, 2024
Moore’s struggles can also be attributed to a significant drop in efficiency. Per PFF, he has seen a sharp decline in receiving grade and yards after the catch per reception since last year. The wide receiver has also seen a sharp decline in the quality of targets coming towards him. Although he is an excellent deep threat, most of his looks have come closer to the line of scrimmage. His 2024 average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.4 yards is well below his career average of 11.8 per PFF.
Time is running out for Moore to make a big impact in fantasy football. His high level of performance – seven goals per game so far – makes him worthy of a weekly starter, but fantasy managers must nonetheless temper expectations moving forward. The veteran receiver should be ranked on the WR2-WR3 border in the coming weeks when making fantasy starting decisions.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Managers have long been waiting for Tua Tagovailoa to return in hopes of revitalizing Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy value. Tagovailoa has now started two straight games for the Dolphins. To the surprise of many, Waddle has made very slight improvements in his fantasy production. He failed to surpass four receptions or 50 receiving yards in both games with Tagovailoa under center.
What’s most perplexing about Waddle’s 2024 struggles is his lack of size. In years past, the Dolphins passing attack was a one-two punch led by Tyreek Hill and Waddle. The two have historically monopolized a large portion of Miami’s scoring. However, that has not translated to 2024. Waddle is currently being targeted by the likes of De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith.
Waddle’s efficiency metrics were not at all encouraging. Among wide receivers with at least 30 targets, he currently ranks 59th in receiving grade, 53rd in yards per route, and 43rd in yards after the catch per reception, per PFF. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if Mike McDaniel’s offensive system has shifted toward the other playmakers on this list.
However, I still prescribe some patience to Waddle managers. After all, it’s only been two games since Tagovailoa returned from injury. Managers certainly won’t get the production they envisioned when they selected Waddle in the third/fourth round of fantasy drafts. In any case, he still deserves to start as a WR3 with upside in the coming weeks.
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