Vice President Kamala Harris has a four-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the final national poll released by Marist on Monday.
The poll included 1,297 potential voters. Sponsored by NPR and PBS51% of respondents supported Harris, while 47% supported Trump. The remaining 2% supported the third-party candidate. The result was outside the poll’s margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.
The poll found that Harris significantly reduced Trump’s lead with men nationally. Trump still leads men in the poll 51%-47%, but the previous version of the poll had Trump leading by 16 points. Harris leads among women in the poll by 55%-45%, although her previous lead was 18 points.
Pollsters who told Marist they had already voted made up 55% of the sample, which was conducted by phone, text or online between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2. 56% of those who had already voted favored Harris, while 53% favored those who had already voted. Those who haven’t voted yet prefer Trump.
“Harris is well positioned to carry the popular vote for president, but needs to navigate a narrow path to get 270 Electoral College votes,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in the poll statement. . “Former President Trump’s candidacy is hampered by his high negativity among likely voters.”
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Marist poll is the latest poll to show last-second momentum swing toward Harris, including Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll It was a lead for the vice president in a state considered safe for Trump. Other national polls show that the race appears close.
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can rely that survey results represent the entire population.
When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.
Pio did too It found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, in which Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.
