As Americans head to the polls, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains very tight. As it appears there will be a long wait before elections are called in the United States, here are six pivotal factors that could determine who will occupy the White House.
Gender gap: Can Kamala become the first female president of the United States?
The 2024 election has become a defining moment in gender politics. Harris has received strong support among female voters, leading 53% to 36% in a recent poll. Her campaign has focused heavily on issues such as reproductive rights after Roe v. Wade, aiming to bolster her advantage over women, who traditionally vote at higher rates than men. Conversely, Trump dominates male voters, and leads by a similar margin. The election could hinge on which candidate mobilizes his sexual base most effectively.
Could ‘Bro Vote’ song inspired by Elon Musk and Joe Rogan help Trump win?
The Trump campaign strategically targeted non-college-educated youth, a demographic often overlooked in previous elections. His appearances at UFC events, college football matches, and podcasts are intended to motivate this group. These voters, although historically more likely to participate, represent about 11% of voters in key battleground states. Trump’s success may depend on the turnout of these “low-information” voters.
Will major voters shift from red to blue this year?
Older voters, who have historically leaned Republican, may lean toward Harris this time, especially older women who are concerned about rising costs and social safety nets. Polls show Harris with a narrow lead among voters 65 and older, with a significant advantage among older women. This “silver surge” could be crucial in Midwestern battlegrounds like Iowa, Pennsylvania and Michigan, where Harris is already showing promising progress among seniors.
Will blacks, Latinos and Indians realize the truth about Trump’s electoral tricks?
Trump has had minor inroads with black and Latino voters, with an emphasis on younger males within these communities. While Harris is still leading, Harris leads Trump by 84%-16% among black voters in Pennsylvania and 75%-25% in Michigan, the margins are smaller than they were in 2020. And if Trump can improve his performance a little in the centers Metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia, Detroit, Washington, and Milwaukee could offset Harris’ gains among white suburban voters. However, Harris polls better with white voters than Biden does, potentially offsetting any decline in minority votes.
Will Puerto Rico weaken Trump’s chances of winning?
The backlash against offensive comments made at Trump’s rally could energize Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state. Harris leads significantly among this group, and their turnout could be decisive. With Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes in the balance, the reaction of this demographic could be pivotal.
Will the ‘blue wall’ that helped Biden win 2024 help Kamala?
The Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, known as the “Blue Wall,” have historically voted as a single bloc. Harris needs to secure these states to consolidate her path to 270 electoral votes. Trump’s chances improve dramatically if he can flip any of these states, especially Pennsylvania. A win in Pennsylvania would allow Trump multiple paths to victory, especially if he can secure key Sun Belt states like Georgia and Arizona.
