China
China is preparing for a trade war. Trump has pledged to impose comprehensive tariffs on Chinese exports, which Beijing relies on to compensate for the weak state of its economy.
Few in China expect improved relations with the United States, which are already contentious. During his first term, Trump adopted a confrontational approach toward China, imposing tariffs, restricting Chinese technology companies, and deepening ties with Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.
Mr. Trump is widely viewed around the world as a transactional leader. But Chinese officials have told me privately that they expect to have difficulty negotiating with his administration because they view Trump as a duplicitous person. They also worry that tensions over Taiwan could worsen if he surrounds himself with hawkish advisers.
Chinese officials see a potential upside if Trump withdraws the United States from its role as global leader. This would provide China with the opportunity to fill the void, push more countries to China’s side, economically and diplomatically, and weaken the American alliances that have restricted China.
However, these changes may take years to materialize, and the immediate concern is that another Trump term could lead to global instability while the Chinese economy cannot afford it.
India
India is better positioned than many major countries for Trump’s second term. It acts as a counterweight to China and may help diversify global supply chains. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also had a close relationship with Mr. Trump in his first term.
But Trump’s chronic unpredictability could pose a challenge to the Indian bureaucracy’s notorious preference for a slow and steady pace. During his election campaign, Trump made particular reference to India’s high tariffs on American goods, saying he would reciprocate.
Immigration is another point of contention. Mr. Trump, in his first term, restricted Visas used by many Indians In the United States, which also constitute The third largest number of illegal American immigrants. Mr. Trump threatened deportation It can have a huge impact on relationships.
Africa
On a young and rapidly changing continent, millions will be watching to see how a second Trump term could be different.
During his first term, his dealings with the continent ranged from disdain to neglect, as he did not visit the continent even once. Now African governments expect him to adopt an African-based approach that advances American commercial interests.
He will face at least one big decision affecting the continent: legislation set to expire in 2025 that would grant tariff-free access to the U.S. market to dozens of African countries. The law could be a target if Mr. Trump pushes aggressively for tariffs. His administration is also likely to compete with China for resources on the continent, especially rare earths needed for electric cars and wind turbines.
A Trump presidency could reduce US military influence in Africa, even as civil wars and violent extremism spread across the continent. Russia has become the security partner of choice for many African governments, and US forces have been expelled from countries such as Niger and Chad.
Israel and Gaza
While Israelis from many political backgrounds were hopeful that Trump would win, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his right-wing government celebrated his victory more quickly.
The Israeli right hopes that Trump will support the return of Jewish settlers to Gaza, support tougher military measures against Iran, approve Israel’s annexation of the occupied West Bank, and turn a blind eye to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to undermine Israel’s authority. Courts.
“This is a great victory!” Mr. Netanyahu said in a statement. “Congratulations on the greatest comeback in history!”
However, Mr. Trump is unpredictable, and he has indicated in recent months that his priorities may not always align with Israel’s. Last month, he appeared to rule out regime change in Iran, a dream of Israeli politicians. In March, he expressed discomfort with some of the images of devastation emerging in Gaza, telling Israeli journalists: “You are losing a lot of support. You have to finish, you have to get the job done.”
Palestinian leaders in the West Bank did their best to get Trump’s attention, quickly sending their congratulations despite falling out with him during his first term. Hamas spokesman Bassem Naim issued a silent statement, describing the elections as a “private matter for the Americans.”
Mexico
Mexico is preparing for a second Trump term that may be more destructive than the first term.
The president-elect has promised a series of policies that could have dire consequences: such as using US military force against drug cartels in Mexico and sending thousands of troops to the border; impose comprehensive tariffs on allies and adversaries alike; and implementing the largest deportation campaign in American history, which would cause major social and economic repercussions for Mexico.
Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, said she would postpone recognizing the winner of the election until all votes are counted. She also urged calm. “There is nothing to worry about,” she told the business community and Mexicans at home and in the United States on Wednesday. But the risks are certainly high: Mexico recently surpassed China to become the largest source of imports to the United States.
Russia and Ukraine
It is clear that a victory for Mr. Trump would have an enormous impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine. But no one in Moscow or Kyiv knows exactly what it will be.
In Russia, there is hope that Trump will follow through on his repeated promises to end the war quickly. His deputy, J.D. Vance, has outlined a peace deal similar to what analysts believe the Kremlin wants: an agreement that would keep Russia in control of the territories it seized, and ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO.
But the Kremlin seems skeptical that Trump would actually push for such a deal, especially because of his track record: There was jubilation in Moscow when Trump won in 2016, but over the next four years, US sanctions against Russia increased. Mr. Trump sent anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.
Ukraine will also have to agree to a deal — although it may have to do so, under duress, if the United States cuts off military aid. Although there are signs of growing public interest in a settlement, President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly remained steadfast in his refusal to give up Ukrainian territory or potentially join NATO. On Wednesday, he quickly made clear that he would seek to have Mr. Trump by his side, as one of the first world leaders to congratulate Mr. Trump in a post on X.
climate
Mr. Trump’s victory is a setback for the world’s attempt to rein in dangerous levels of rising temperatures.
The United States is the biggest polluter in history, so it is crucial that it succeeds in reducing climate pollution. Mr. Trump’s record shows he has no desire to do so.
He will likely once again roll back many climate-related regulations in the United States. He said he would again withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. He has supported more oil and gas exploration, while the United States is already the world’s largest producer. New drilling licenses could trap more greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet for decades, making extreme weather risks more likely.
But the world has also changed since his first term. Renewable energy is cheaper than ever, with China controlling much of the supply chain. The Biden administration’s landmark climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, has attracted new manufacturing industries to American shores. It may be difficult for Mr. Trump to dismantle it completely.
Europe and NATO
Trump’s victory will not come as a surprise to the United States’ European allies, but it will test their ability to maintain solidarity, build their militaries, and defend their economic interests if Trump implements the major tariffs he has threatened. .
“How do we deal with a United States that views us as a competitor and a nuisance rather than a friend to work with?” said Georgina Wright, deputy director of international studies at the Montaigne Institute in Paris. “Europe must be united, but that does not mean that Europe will be united.”
Some European countries have tried to prepare for Trump’s victory. But with the French and German governments weak at home, building a strong European response may be difficult.
Mr. Trump’s unpredictability — enabled by Republican lawmakers — is worrying European allies. But they expect Trump to maintain some of his positions: skepticism of multilateral alliances, admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and dislike for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said François Hesburg, a French defense analyst.
Mr. Hesburgh said Mr. Trump had been effective in demanding more military spending from fellow NATO members. But he added that Article 5 of the alliance, which commits members to collective defence, “is not meant to be a protection racket.”
