As we head into Election Day, you might be wondering: What time will we know who has won? The problem is: We don’t know! It took four days for the 2020 presidential race to be called. While it seems unlikely that will happen this time—vote counters aren’t social distancing, and states have had time to adjust to the rise in voting by mail—a lot has also changed since 2016, too. Mail-in and early voting have both expanded, and attention on how exactly the votes are counted has risen considerably thanks to Jan. 6, so the last pre-pandemic election might not be the most reliable guide to how things will go on Tuesday, either.
One 2024 wild card is how the rise of Republican mail voting might make the night unfold differently. In the past, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to vote by mail, and in states where those votes are counted first, it could create a “blue mirage” that would fade to red as the night went on. (In states where those votes are counted last, it would be the opposite effect—a “red mirage.”) But this year, the Trump campaign is encouraging supporters to vote early or by mail, possibly shifting the scale and direction of those dynamics.
All that said, looking back at when states were called in 2020 and 2016 (using AP’s own timelines of when it made its calls), you can get a rough sense of the probable flow of the evening. We’ve compiled those here, along with some other things we’ll be keeping an eye out for, hour by hour, as election night goes on.
In the broadest sense, here’s how the night should go: Starting at around 7 p.m. EST, states that aren’t much of a surprise to anyone will start being called, and some data will begin emerging that will be interesting for wonks to chew on. But things will probably really start to get interesting after 9 p.m. Eastern, and the battleground states that will ultimately decide the election (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina) likely won’t be called till after midnight. Just how long after is the big question.
To get your own sense of how the states need to split, it’s useful to play around with an Electoral College counter—the New York Times has a good one here.
Table of contents:
The 7 p.m. EST hour
The 8 p.m. EST hour
The 9 p.m. EST hour
The 10 p.m. EST hour
The 11 p.m. EST hour
The 12 a.m. EST hour
The 1 a.m. EST hour
The 2 a.m. EST hour
The 3 a.m. EST hour
Daytime Wednesday and beyond
The 7 p.m. EST hour
Polls will have closed in: Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Vermont, South Carolina, Georgia, and most of Florida. Polls in West Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.
States the AP called during this hour (or earlier) in both 2016 and 2020: Kentucky, West Virginia
States the AP called during this hour (or earlier) in 2016: Indiana
States the AP called during this hour (or earlier) in 2020: Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina
Things we’ll be keeping an eye on:
What’s happening in Georgia? Georgia will be the first major swing state to close, and the state counts quickly. Early and mail ballot returns may start trickling in during this hour, with Election Day votes coming in later. Here, we’ll get some of our first looks at the biggest questions in the election: how independents are breaking, whether Trump made meaningful inroads among Black men, and how support for Harris looks in the suburbs. The state expects to have most of the vote counted within a few hours of the polls closing.
How much of a fight is Trump putting up in Virginia? Virginia results will start coming in after 7 p.m. While the state is expected to go blue, just how tight that victory is for Democrats could be a sign of things to come. If Trump and Harris remain neck and neck in the state, it could mean a better than expected night for Trump overall.
Whither Sherrod Brown? With Ohio polls closing at 7:30 p.m. EST, we should be getting an indication of where the Sherrod Brown Senate race is heading—and if he loses, it likely spells the loss of Senate control for Democrats.
Has Trump made gains in counties with big Black and Latino populations? Polls close in parts of Indiana at 6 p.m. Eastern, and while the state will almost certainly go to Trump, some specific counties will be interesting to keep an eye on as a potential indicator of larger trends. (Key word: potential! This is basically a step or two above tea-leaf reading, but you will likely hear a lot about it during this hour because there won’t be a ton else to talk about.) One of the Big Questions that polling has raised this year—particularly New York Times/Siena polling—is whether Trump has made large, “realignment”-level gains with nonwhite voters, particularly younger men who didn’t complete college. We’ll be checking out the results in Lake County, which has a large Black population, and Allen County, which contains a decent number of Black and Hispanic voters, for signs that Trump made gains with these groups since 2020. It’s also possible that nonwhite voters in Indiana aren’t going to move in the same way as those in Arizona or even in Michigan, so it’s unclear how reliable of an early indicator these shifts—or lack thereof—will be.
Has Harris made gains with moderate suburban voters? Another question on our minds will be: Did Harris gain with moderate suburban, college-educated voters, compared to Biden? (That is, did campaigning with Liz Cheney actually work for her?) For early indications of that, we’ll be looking at Hamilton County, which includes the Indianapolis suburbs.
Does it look like North Carolina will go blue? New Hanover and Nash counties went to Trump in 2016, and flipped to Biden in 2020. The whole state went to Trump both times, but these counties show the potential for the state to go blue this year. But if Harris does worse in these counties this year than Biden did in 2020, it’s not a good sign for her taking the state. Because these counties don’t have very big populations, they should be some of the earliest swing-state counties to post results.
Which way are swing counties in Michigan trending? Since polls close in most of Michigan this hour, we’ll also be keeping an eye on the counties of Kent, Saginaw, and Leelanau—which went to Trump in 2016 and then to Biden in 2020—for a possible early indicator of which way swing voters in the state are moving this time.
The 8 p.m. EST hour
Polls will have closed in: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, the District of Columbia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, most of Michigan, most of Texas, most of Kansas, parts of South Dakota and North Dakota, and the remaining parts of Florida. Polls in Arkansas close at 8:30 p.m. EST.
States the AP called during this hour in both 2016 and 2020: Oklahoma, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Illinois
Called by the AP during this hour in 2016: District of Columbia, South Carolina
States the AP called during this hour in 2020: Connecticut, Arkansas, Indiana
Things we’ll be keeping an eye on:
How much of a fight is Trump putting up in Maine and New Hampshire? Like Virginia, these states are expected to go to Harris—but if the race seems tight, it could be a sign of a good night for Trump overall.
Have Democrats made inroads in Kansas? In the 2022 midterms, voters in Kansas rejected a challenge to abortion rights in the state. It seems that the overturning of Dobbs has been an issue that resonated with voters there, and while Harris will almost certainly lose the state, it will be interesting to see if Democrats perform better there in 2024 than in 2020.
A potential sign of how things will go in Pennsylvania? Pennsylvania is an important battleground state, so everyone will be looking for something to say about it. Allegheny County, which contains Pittsburgh, historically counts faster than Philadelphia—though Philadelphia has, at the last minute, decided to add faster ballot-counting machines to its fleet. It will be interesting to see how Harris is performing there compared to Biden in 2020—and to make those kinds of comparisons looking at the more rural Pennsylvania counties that should be able to count fairly quickly because they’re less populous.
We’ll also be keeping an eye on Pennsylvania’s Erie and Northampton counties, which went to Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Northampton County has gone to the ultimate winner of the presidency in almost every election for the past 100 years.
And as Florida rolls in, it will be interesting to compare how Harris performed this year compared to Biden in 2020.
The 9 p.m. EST hour
Polls will have closed in: Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Louisiana, and New York, as well as the remaining parts of Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas.
States the AP called during this hour in both 2016 and 2020: New York, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Louisiana
States the AP called during this hour in 2016: Texas, Arkansas, Connecticut
States the AP called during this hour in 2020: New Mexico, District of Columbia, Colorado
Things we’ll be keeping an eye on:
Did Trump make inroads in New York? Trump has been doing a lot of campaigning in New York this cycle, and he’s said he believes he’s going to flip the state red. He probably won’t! But once New York results come in, it will be interesting to see whether he’s fared better there this year than in 2020.
We’ll also be on the lookout for New York House race results from this point on, since the races that will likely decide control of the House are mostly playing out in New York and California.
Is Trump struggling in Iowa? Sure, Ann Selzer’s final poll before the election, which showed Harris ahead in the solidly red state of Iowa, may be an outlier. But her track record has been pretty impeccable so far, and if Trump is underperforming in Iowa compared to 2020 and 2016, it might be a bad sign for him in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, whose electorates share some similarities.
Has Texas shifted blue since 2020? With polls closed in Texas, we’ll also be looking to see how Harris is performing compared to Biden in 2020, and we’ll be keeping an eye on the competitive Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred. How Democrats do in the Rio Grande Valley, in southern Texas, relative to 2020 will offer a good indication of how damaging an issue the border was for them in the Southwest.
Polls will also have closed in the battleground state of Arizona, though it will probably take a while to get results.
And with polls closed in Wisconsin, we’ll be watching the Wisconsin swing counties of Sauk and Door for indications of how the most persuadable voters in that state are leaning.
The 10 p.m. EST hour
Polls will have closed in: Montana, Utah, Nevada, parts of Idaho, and most of Oregon.
States the AP called during this hour in both 2016 and 2020: Missouri
States the AP called during this hour in 2016: Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida
States the AP called during this hour in 2020: New Hampshire
Things we’ll be keeping an eye on:
Some results in the close Montana Senate race between Democratic incumbent John Tester and his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy should start coming in this hour. With Senate control hanging in the balance, it’s become one of the most expensive statewide races ever. (Alexander Sammon spent some time there bingeing campaign ads until his head hurt—his piece is a frightening look into how this race might be determined.)
The 11 p.m. EST hour
Polls will have closed in: California, Washington, and the remaining parts of Idaho and Oregon.
States the AP called during this hour in both 2016 and 2020: California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Utah
States the AP called during this hour in 2016: Hawaii, North Carolina, Georgia
Things we’ll be keeping an eye on:
Results will start coming in for competitive California House races that could determine which party takes control of the chamber.
The 12 a.m. EST hour
Polls will have closed in: Most parts of Alaska, and Hawaii.
States the AP called during this hour in both 2016 and 2020: Iowa
States the AP called during this hour in 2016: Nevada
States the AP called during this hour in 2020: Hawaii, Minnesota, Ohio, Montana, Florida
Things we’ll be keeping an eye on:
Among the swing states, North Carolina and Wisconsin are the ones expecting to have full results on election night or the wee hours of the next morning.
While Michigan took a long time to count its ballots in 2020, the state has since passed a law designed to give election officials a head start on processing mail ballots, which could mean we get earlier results this year—perhaps as early as midnight Eastern time.
Georgia has also adopted more preprocessing of mail ballots, so we could see results there in this zone, too.
Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona will probably take longer.
By midnight on election night, and possibly before, it is likely that the information gleaned from all of these various moving parts will at least offer some clarity to the question of when we will know who won, even if we still won’t know who won.
The 1 a.m. EST hour
Polls are now closed in all 50 states.
States the AP called during this hour in 2016: Pennsylvania, Maine
States the AP called during this hour in 2020: Texas
The 2 a.m. EST hour
States the AP called during this hour in 2016: Wisconsin
States the AP called during this hour in 2020: Arizona
The 3 a.m. EST hour
States the AP called during this hour in 2020: Maine
One of the most critical moments of 2020 election night came around this time: Milwaukee reported most of its remaining outstanding ballots, which put Biden ahead for good. Late-night bulk reports like this in Milwaukee, Detroit, and other big metros could be the moment in a close race when we get a clearer sense of who’s going to win.
Daytime Wednesday and beyond
States the AP called after this point in 2016: Minnesota, Alaska (the day after Election Day).
States the AP called after this point in 2020: Wisconsin; Michigan (the day after Election Day); Pennsylvania and Nevada (four days after Election Day); Georgia (more than two weeks after Election Day)
Here’s hoping it doesn’t take that long this time!
